The delivery curve peaks in 2028
Every off-plan purchase is a bet with a date attached. Aggregating the scheduled handover of all 725 projects in the InvestOffplan catalog produces a clear curve: 81 projects are due in 2026, 163 in 2027, a peak of 215 in 2028, then 134 in 2029 and 56 in 2030, with a small tail into 2031.
In other words, more than half of everything currently on the market is scheduled to deliver within the 2027–2028 window. That is the period when today's launch pipeline converts into physical supply — keys, snagging, and a wave of new units seeking tenants.
- 2026 — 81 projects due
- 2027 — 163 projects due
- 2028 — 215 projects due (peak)
- 2029 — 134 projects due
- 2030 — 56 projects due
What a delivery peak means in practice
For end-users, the wave is mostly good news: heavy scheduled delivery means real choice among nearly new stock and leverage when comparing late-stage inventory against fresh launches.
For investors underwriting rental income, timing matters more. A unit handing over into the 2028 peak may face more competing new stock in its district at exactly the moment it seeks its first tenant — particularly in high-volume corridors like Dubai Islands, Creek Harbour and Dubai South, where phased releases stack deliveries. Buyers can partially offset this by favouring earlier handovers, or districts where the local delivery schedule is thinner.
It is also worth remembering that handover dates are targets, not guarantees. Construction-milestone payment plans provide some natural protection, since instalments track progress, but prudent buyers model a delay buffer into any plan that depends on rental income starting at a specific quarter.
District-level granularity matters more than the national curve. A 2028 handover in a corridor with thin remaining pipeline is a very different proposition from a 2028 handover in a district where dozens of towers deliver in adjacent quarters. Cross-reference your target project's handover quarter against every other listed project in the same district before you commit — the information is public, and few buyers actually do it.
Matching the curve to your strategy
The curve doubles as a strategy menu. Buyers who want keys quickly are working from the 81 projects due in 2026 — a shrinking, largely built pool where payment plans are mostly consumed but completion risk is lowest. Buyers optimising for the longest capital runway are looking at 2029–2030 deliveries, where construction-linked plans stretch furthest. The 2027–2028 core offers the widest selection, and demands the sharpest district-level supply analysis.
None of this argues against buying into the wave; it argues for pricing it. Supply peaks are visible years in advance, which means they are at least partly reflected in launch pricing and payment-plan generosity. The buyers who get hurt by delivery waves are rarely the ones who knew about them.